This investigation is part of a cooperation between The Critical Angle Project and CORRECTIV.Europe, a network for local journalism that implements data-driven and investigative research together with local newsrooms across Europe. CORRECTIV.Europe is part of the non-profit investigative newsroom CORRECTIV, which is funded by donations.
What does Malta have in common with the Sonoran desert in Mexico?
As things stand today, one may be tempted to quickly respond with ‘not much.’
In sixty years’ time, however, temperatures in the Mediterranean are set to be closer to the Mexican state that is home to the hottest desert in North America than they are to what we see today.
Sunset in the Sonoran desert. © Tomas Castelazo / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 3.0
According to CityApp, summers in Malta are set to become 4.9°C hotter and 16% drier. Winters are also set to become 3.5°C warmer and 15.6% drier. The closest comparison we have to this in the present is the Sonoran desert, a region where maximum temperatures can soar up to a scorching 50°C.
A screenshot of the CityApp information quoted above. This app was created by Matt Fitzpatrick at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science – Appalachian Lab, with substantial coding support provided by Teofil Nakov.
The academics who developed this tool note that the default setting automatically compares your chosen location to the nearest possible climate analog, a match which they advise is not ideal but rather the closest current comparison we have. Some regions of the world will become hotter than anything previously witnessed by humanity, and will likely become uninhabitable if current emissions trajectories persist.
“An interesting, but not necessarily surprising finding is that there are no perfect matches. In other words, for no city is there an identical future and present-day climate. In fact, because of the magnitude of expected climate change, for many cities the “best” match is not all that similar, especially for cities closer to the equator. This means that many cities could experience a future climate unlike anything present on Earth today, especially if rates of greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced.”
The latest report published by the European Environment Agency notes that 2023 was the warmest year on record, and that the average global temperature between February 2023 and January of this year exceeded pre-industrial levels by 1.5°C. Effectively, the 2015 Paris Agreement, which was hailed as a decisive plan to limit the increase in global temperatures to 1.5°C, is dead in the water. The overwhelming consensus is that we are headed towards at least 2.5°C, an increase which will cause “catastrophic consequences for humanity and the planet.”
Europe itself is the fastest-warming continent on the whole planet, which leads to a vicious cycle of additional power consumption to compensate for a hotter climate that, in turn, only leads to more emissions and therefore, more climate change. Cooling needs for households in Europe are set to increase fourfold by the end of the century.
In terms of this massive increase in heat stress and how it reflects in an increased consumption of power for cooling needs, Malta is only second to Cyprus, according to research shared with this website by CORRECTIV.Europe.
‘Cooling degree-days’ (CDDs) are used to measure a region’s need for cooling buildings to reach a temperature of 21°C. By way of example, if the daily average of a region is 27°C, the CDD value for this day is 6.
The chart below, which sources data from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, compares the amount of cooling degree days between 1979 and 1989 and the present decade (starting from 2014). Cyprus and Malta stand out clearly from among the top ten countries which experienced the biggest increases in CDDs in Europe.
In simpler terms, Malta experienced a 55% increase in heat stress severity when compared to thirty years ago.
Click here for a larger version of this data chart
How corruption dismantled Malta’s climate resilience
There are additional layers to this problem. From a local perspective, these layers are brought into sharp focus anytime Malta experiences a major power cut in the middle of the summer. From an international point of view, they are also inextricably linked with the kind of corruption which Malta has become all too known for.
A key component of the global race against climate change is the transition to clean energy. During last year’s COP28 – the annual climate summit that always fails to land a decisive blow against the fossil fuel industry – all countries in attendance agreed that, in order for humanity to achieve the goal of going net zero by 2050 (i.e.: negating all our greenhouse gas emissions), we must triple our use of renewable energy sources like solar and wind by then.
In reality, most European governments failed to comply with the EU’s own deadlines on submitting National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), with just 4 out of 27 making it on time. Renewable energy production in most member states is falling far short of these already unambitious draft plans. Malta aims to produce around 17% of its energy from renewables, but currently only produces around 11.5%.
The Maltese government claims to have made progress with the technical design for an offshore wind and solar farm tender, though very little has been heard since it was last mentioned over a year ago. Far less is said about Malta’s reliance on fossil fuels and how that reliance is intrinsically linked with corrupt interests on the island.
To begin with, Malta’s insistence on building a gas pipeline from Sicily to Malta is an affront to both climate and anti-corruption activists. The Melita TransGas project, a proposed 159km gas pipeline which would directly feed into a corrupt power station project linked with the murder of Daphne Caruana Galizia, isn’t even the only problematic aspect of our power supply.
There is also the fact that our major international partner for the provision of gas is none other than Azerbaijan, a petrostate known for exporting caviar diplomacy overseas and furiously cracking down on dissent at home. The ruling family of Azerbaijan, the Aliyevs and their satellites, are currently busy enriching themselves and laundering their reputation by hosting COP29 this month. Members of the Aliyev family had previously used Malta’s shadiest bank, the now-shuttered Pilatus, to launder their wealth.
A 2014 photo of disgraced former prime minister Joseph Muscat (left) and president of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev (right), taken after a secretive meeting in Baku. Photo: DOI
For a country to be able to adequately respond to climate change fueled crises, its energy supply must ideally be close to home. Transitioning to renewables isn’t just a climate change priority – it is also a matter of security. The electricity distribution grid must also be regularly maintained and serviced so as to ensure people can cool down their homes as temperatures soar, especially in a country that is set to become as arid as a Mexican desert.
The fact is that Malta is not prepared on either front. The corrupt interests which cemented the Electrogas deal have effectively locked in the country’s dependence on fossil fuels for decades, while Enemalta, the country’s only energy company, races to address the country’s faulty distribution system after years of mismanagement.
Indeed, when considering how corrupt interests shape our dependence on fossil fuels and the alarming increase in heat stress severity experienced by the country over the last thirty years, Malta’s future as an arid, scorching desert seems all but assured.
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