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Yesterday, I published a commentary piece in which I spoke about the image of prosperity the government seeks to project. I argued that, while the hard numbers presented in this year’s Budget do merit their own analysis, the government’s efforts to massage public opinion were truly something else, to put it mildly. Read the whole thing if you want to know more about that.
Today, it’s all about those numbers.
While the finance minister’s traditional Budget speech amounts to a list of every measure the government thinks will make it more popular, the financial estimates tell a more interesting story.
For the purpose of this analysis, I looked at the revenue and expenditure estimates for the year 2025 and compared them with the same numbers for 2024. The estimates include individual reports for every single government entity that has an annual budget.
Expenditure takes into account both recurrent expenditure (wages, salaries, and all other relevant forms of income from employment, operational and maintenance expenses, programmes and initiatives, and contributions to other government entities) as well as capital expenditure (funds to be used for physical assets like property).
In effect, a ministry’s annual spending power is a reflection of its overall importance, both in terms of policy weighting and in terms of how critical it is to running the country’s infrastructure. Projected expenditures for the upcoming year also provide insight into whether the government is planning on spending more or less than it did the previous year in sectors relevant to each ministry’s remit.
To make the presentation of data easier, the ministries were grouped according to the amount of money they are projected to spend next year.
“The big four”
Click here for a larger version of this data chart
As is to be expected, the finance ministry accounts for the biggest slice of the revenue pie, with a projected revenue of €6.6 billion that is offset by €1.3 billion in projected expenses. The social policy, health, and education ministries alone are set to account for a staggering €4.9 billion in expenses.
The bulk of the social policy ministry’s projected spending will be on the programmes and initiatives which fall under its remit, which include social security contributions and pensions. As for the health ministry, roughly two thirds of those expenses will go to paying employees and programmes and initiatives like the procurement of medicine. Almost half of the education ministry’s budget is also for the payment of employees, which naturally includes educators among its ranks.
Finance, social policy, and health are all expecting bigger cuts of revenue in 2025 when compared to last year’s budget (+€291.8 million, +€115.1 million, and +€49.4 million, respectively). The education ministry is expecting a slight downturn in its almost negligible revenue stream, from €244,000 in 2024 to €230,000 in 2025.
Click here for a larger version of this data chart
As for spending, the finance ministry is expecting to trim its output to the tune of €111.7 million and social policy by €143.4 million. On the other hand, the health ministry’s expenditure is set to increase by around €431.5 million, wiping out any expected increase in revenue.
It is pertinent to point out that, following the appointment of health minister Jo Etienne Abela after his predecessor Chris Fearne was charged in court in relation to the hospitals case, the health ministry also took over the active ageing portfolio.
The education ministry – which includes sport, youth, research, and innovation in its remit – is also going to increase its expenditure by €93.3 million.
For ease of reference, these are the same charts side-by-side.
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And now, for some musical chairs…
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The projected expenditure of the next eight ministries in this analysis also make for some compelling reading, and not just because of the changes in expected spending power.
Five of those eight ministries were subject to portfolio switch-ups, which makes the process of tracking changes from one budget to the next difficult since one cannot compare like with like if the remit of the ministry was widened or diminished. Tourism, national heritage, and agriculture ministries remained unchanged, making a more direct comparison possible.
Click here for a larger version of this data chart
The environment and energy ministry, currently under Miriam Dalli’s command, no longer controls the revenue-friendly enterprise portfolio, leading to an expected reduction of €24 million in revenue and a further €146.5 million reduction in expenditure.
Economy minister Silvio Schembri also saw a major downsizing in the portfolios under his control, with EU funds now controlled directly by the prime minister’s office and the lands ministry hived off to an entirely separate ministry.
Home affairs minister Byron Camilleri – who took over the employment portfolio and lost the reforms and equality secretariat – is expecting a €15.5 million increase in revenue and a €131.9 million increase in expenditure.
Transport minister Chris Bonett, who took over from current foreign minister Ian Borg in 2022, expects an increase of €33.1 million in revenue and an increase in expenditure amounting to €60.8 million. The capital projects file was also subject to changes since last year, with Bonett now overseeing public works instead.
As for the ministries which remained the same since the previous budget – tourism, heritage, and agriculture – all are expected to spend more in 2025 than they did in 2024. Tourism minister Clayton Bartolo expects a practically negligible €63,000 increase in revenue and a far more significant €24.1 million increase in spending. Heritage minister Owen Bonnici expects a €2.6 million increase in expenditure, with the revenue generated by the ministry being small enough to be considered negligible for the purpose of this analysis.
Agriculture minister Anton Refalo expects his ministry’s revenue to more than double in size, from €23.6 million in 2024 to €51.5 million in 2025. This increase is set to be accompanied by an increase in expenditure of €30 million.
This is the side-by-side comparison.
Click here for an enlarged version of this data chart
…and finally, the crumbs
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What remains of the budget pie must be divided among the above eleven ministries and government departments.
The two biggest ministries in this category were both given expanded portfolios since the last budget. There were no changes at the top, with both ministries remaining under the control of Clint Camilleri (Gozo, planning) and Jonathan Attard (justice, construction reform). While the Gozo ministry’s expected revenue is set to increase twenty-fold, the justice ministry’s revenue is expected to remain more or less as is.
As for expenditure, the Gozo ministry’s set to spend €9 million more than it did last year. The justice ministry is set to spend an additional €24.3 million.
Meanwhile, the foreign affairs ministry – which also took over the trade portfolio following Ian Borg’s ascent to the post – expects a slight decline in revenue (-€490,000) and a significant increase in expenditure (+€13.9 million).
Click here for an enlarged version of this data chart
The inclusion ministry is set to spend €4.4 million less than it did last year, whereas the social and affordable accommodation ministry is set to spend an extra €6.9 million.
At the very bottom rung of the ladder lie three of the most important offices in the country – the National Audit Office (NAO), the Ombudsman, and the Standards Commissioner.
While all three offices are expecting a slight expansion of their annual budgets, all three have been complaining about a lack of funding, personnel, and resources for years, with all of them being strained beyond capacity as a result. This, compounded by the fact that their legislative powers remain weak, shows that accountability and public standards remain at the very bottom of the Labour government’s spending priorities.
To put the finances of these offices into perspective, our government allocates €6 million to the office of the president, which plays a ceremonial, symbolic role within government. The NAO, the Ombudsman, and the Standards Commissioner combined will have a comparatively paltry €8.5 million to operate with for the entire year.